Demand Forecast

Stop planning on gut feel. 24 months of SAP data, 6 months of XGBoost — every SKU, every month.

Model: XGBoost Regressor trained per-SKU on the fact_sap_orders Silver table. Features: lag-1 month qty, lag-3 month qty, rolling 3-month avg, rolling 6-month avg, month-of-year, product category. Train/test uses a time-based split — last 15% of months held out to prevent data leakage. Metrics per MLflow run: MAE, RMSE, MAPE. Champion promoted via @champion alias in Unity Catalog — no code change needed to swap models. Forecast reflects B2B seasonal patterns: Nov 1.55×, Dec 1.38×, Aug 0.81× — driven by enterprise Q4 budget cycles and summer procurement lulls.

XGBoost Model · MLflow @champion

4 product(s) with declining demand

Workstation Desktop i9 (COMP) — 3.4% · Last 90d: 215 vs Prior: 223 units
Business Tablet 11" (MOBI) — 1.8% · Last 90d: 198 vs Prior: 202 units
USB-C Hub 10-Port (ACCS) — 5.2% · Last 90d: 490 vs Prior: 517 units
Laptop Stand & Dock (ACCS) — 2.1% · Last 90d: 235 vs Prior: 240 units

Total Units — Historical + 6-Month Forecast

Seasonal model applied

Solid bars = actuals · Dashed line = ML forecast · Q4 enterprise budget cycle visible

← scroll to see full chart →

Product Performance

ProductCategoryRevenueUnits90d Growth
Business Laptop Pro 15"COMP$2,140,0001,430+8.2%
Ultrabook Slim 13"COMP$1,820,0001,210+5.1%
Workstation Desktop i9COMP$1,340,000890-3.4%
All-in-One Desktop 27"COMP$980,000620+2.7%
Smartphone Pro Max 256GBMOBI$870,0001,140+12.4%
Business Tablet 11"MOBI$620,000820-1.8%
Wireless Earbuds ProMOBI$540,000710+6.9%
Smartwatch Series 5MOBI$390,000960+18.3%
USB-C Hub 10-PortACCS$290,0002,100-5.2%
Mechanical Keyboard WirelessACCS$140,0001,850+1.1%
4K USB Webcam ProACCS$88,0001,420+3.4%
Laptop Stand & DockACCS$61,000980-2.1%